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They’ve been trending that way basically every way you look at it, as they’re also 9-4 in their last 13 games against a right-handed starter. In their last 12 games following a win, the Under is 10-2. The Braves have been trending in the opposite direction, playing to the Under in six of their last seven games overall. This lineup has typically performed well in away games, ranking third in both wOBA and wRC+ on the road this season. The Mets have been trending hard toward the Over, cashing tickets in six of their last seven games overall, and an even better bet on the road - cashing in 10 of their last 12 away games. Going against quality starting pitching hasn’t been a concern for Atlanta (a must come playoff time), as it is 10-2 in its last 12 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. They are 8-2 in their last 10 Sunday games and 42-16 in their last 58 games following a loss. The Mets are 9-4 in their last 13 games overall and have typically been a good bet in this spot.

It’s not that either record is bad, but it’s undeniable that they’ve been more fortunate at home than on the road.īoth teams have been a good bet lately. The Mets are 51-27 at home but 47-33 on the road. It must come as a relief that their biggest game of the season to date - and the biggest game of the 2022 regular season, for any team - comes in their home confines of Truist Park. The Braves have a stellar 54-26 record at home this season, much better than their 45-33 record on the road. Home/road splits are a factor in this matchup for both teams.

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Both teams have the talent to make a postseason run and there isn’t a huge edge for either side, but the Braves have been lights out at Truist Park and have a veteran pitcher on the mound who has proven trustworthy in big games. The Braves are 41-12 in their last 53 home games, and that’s not something I can ignore in this spot. Atlanta ranks sixth in wOBA and sixth in wRC+ over the last 15 days, while the Mets check in at seventh in wOBA and fifth in wRC+ during that time span. He’ll be on the road for this matchup, which does dampen his outlook in this spot.īoth teams have a quality lineup, but I give a slight edge to the Braves. Bassitt has a 3.68 ERA and 1.19 ERA on the road but a 2.95 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home. He’s been effective this season, but his home/road splits are also something worth considering in this spot. In a playoff atmosphere, I expect a solid outing out of a player like Morton, who has been in this position plenty of times in his career and earned his reputation as a big-game pitcher.Ĭhris Bassitt gets the nod for the Mets. Morton has had massive home/road splits this season, with an ugly 5.72 ERA in away games and a spectacular 2.88 ERA at home. The veteran has allowed a whopping 14 earned runs across his last three starts, but here’s the thing - all three of those starts came on the road. Expect to see both teams’ best efforts Sunday Night in what will resemble close to a playoff atmosphere.Ĭharlie Morton gets the nod for Atlanta, and he’s been on an ugly stretch of games lately.

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Whoever finishes second place in the division is relegated to a three-game Wild Card Series - volatility both clubs would rather avoid. Win, and the Braves can rest easier with a two-game lead and only three games left in the regular season. The Mets are biting at Atlanta's heels in both teams' quest to take home the division in order to earn a bye to start the postseason. Best odds Best bet Moneyline analysis Total analysis Mets vs Braves best odds